Ranking Week 15

The Case for TCU

TCU handled two legitimate top 25 teams- BYU and Utah, and beating a Clemson team on the road that came within one play of being ACC Champion.  They had only two close games all year- at Air Force and at Clemson.  Texas beat two ranked teams in my current Top 25- Texas Tech who barely skated in and Okla St., who I have considered a bit overrated much of the year and who laid a complete egg just one week ago.  They played close games against Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas AM, and Nebraska.  And they won that Nebraska game by the slimmest of margins in a “neutral” stadium within their own state.  TCU has done it on the road, it has scheduled strong non-conference games, and it has taken on all comers.

P.S.- TCU and Boise St is a travesty.  Whoever wins will just claim the title of “BCS conferences give not respect Bowl”.  If you really want to know how good those teams are, given them a true neutral site shot against Florida, Cincinnati, or Georgia Tech.

What I Like – About MY Poll

I like my whole top ten.  Alabama separated themselves with a big win, and TCU stayed ahead of Texas by the slimmest of margins.  Florida fell below Boise st but stayed above OSU and Oregon- a good test of my forumula.  Really go back and look at what teams achieved throughout the entire year, not just how you think they might be playing right now, and I’ll put these up against anyone.

What I Don’t Like

Oregon St at 28 and Nebraska at 30.  Both had some tough losses early, and I don’t want to forget about those, but both also showed very strongly against top teams late in the season, and I think they should be in the Top 25.

1		Alabama
2		tcu
3		Texas
4		Cinn
5		boise
6		Florida
7		Ohio St
8		Oregon
9		G Tech
10		Penn St
11		V Tech
12		byu
13		Iowa
14		Miami
15		c mich
16		Pitt
17		Okla st
18		W virginia
19		Stanford
20		LSU
21		N Carolina
22		utah
23		Wisconsin
24		USC
25		Texas Tech

Rankings Week 14

Big Development

Look at the actual point totals of our top 3 teams: TCU (.8182), Texas (.8167), and Alabama (.8146).  That’s close ladies and gentlemen.  And it is right where it should be . . for now.  TCU is done, but Texas and Alabama still have a game to play.  An Alabama win should take them to the top.  Texas may need to win by a few against Nebraska, but it can happen there too.  That’s the beauty of a computer- telling it like it is.  If the #3 teams proves that they should be number one in the last week, then that is what will happen.

What I Like

I like the whole Top Ten.  I also like that by points, Ohio State is as far behind Boise St as any two teams next to one another since I started this 3 years ago.  I love the Bucks, but that is appropriate.

What I Don’t Like

Central Michigan and Houston seem high to me- we know who the BCS busters are this year, and it is not these two.  Okla St at 18 after that drubbing by Oklahoma.  Should be lower in my book.\

1		tcu
2		Texas
3		Alabama
4		Florida
5		Cinn
6		boise
7		Ohio St
8		Oregon
9		G Tech
10		Penn St
11		V Tech
12		byu
13		Pitt
14		Iowa
15		Miami
16		USC
17		c mich
18		Okla st
19		houston
20		Oregon St
21		Rutgers
22		Cal
23		Stanford
24		Nebraska
25		LSU

Ranking Week 13

Controversy

TCU jumped above Texas this week to claim the number 1 spot.  If you saw Gameday, you would know that a blind measure of these two schools by the numbers would show more impressive victories for TCU than for Texas.  However, this is a somewhat odd result given Texas’ blowout win over Kansas.  TCU has definitely gotten a bump from Clemson’s continued success, while Oklahoma’s blowout loss hurt Texas.  Texas still has two games to play- and a significant win over Nebraska could bump them ahead again.

What I LIke

Penn St over Iowa.  You can hold on to head to head if you want.  I can tell you that Penn State has lost to better teams and struck more decisive victories.  Oregon in the Top 10- it might have been a close win last night, but they keep finding ways to win.

What I Don’t Like

BYU at 12 and Oklahoma St at 13.  Neither seems to be impressive right now, and even some early season wins are losing their luster.  Both are okay teams, but they should be down around 20- and hopefully by the end of the regular season they will be.

Note: here is where the ranking gets interesting.  The Big 10 is done- but there numbers will continue to change as people win and lose.  Meanwhile other teams have some of their toughest games of the year.

Top 25

1		tcu
2		Texas
3		Alabama
4		Cinn
5		Florida
6		boise
7		G Tech
8		Pitt
9		Ohio St
10		Oregon
11		Penn St
12		byu
13		Okla st
14		Iowa
15		V Tech
16		Miami
17		utah
18		N Carolina
19		Clemson
20		c mich
21		USC
22		Miss
23		Oregon St
24		houston
25		Cal

Rankings Week 11

What I Like

TCU getting respect for a big win over Utah.  They dominated that game.  They might not stay at #2, but that is where they deserve to be now.  USC falling into the 20′s- that’s right, you get blown out twice and you drop, deal with it left coast.  Navy in the Top 30- you can’t see it hear, but another couple wins and they could be in the Top 25

What I Don’t Like

Oklahoma St seems overrated at 11.  Sure, their losses have been to good teams, but this seems high for them.  Rutgers at 16.  They had an impressive win this week, but South Florida might have been over rated.

1		Texas
2		tcu
3		Alabama
4		Cinn
5		Florida
6		boise
7		G Tech
8		Pitt
9		Ohio St
10		Oregon
11		Okla st
12		Iowa
13		Penn St
14		byu
15		V Tech
16		Rutgers
17		Stanford
18		LSU
19		utah
20		Miami
21		USC
22		Wisconsin
23		c mich
24		Clemson
25		N Carolina

Rankings Week 9

What I Like about This Week

Almost everything.  I love the Top 6, and you should know that Texas and Alabama are almost equal and that they are separated from the rest of the pack.  TCU manhandled its competition this week, while Cincy won but struggled, and thus they have moved down.  Cry about Florida if you want, but they continue to generate pretty mediocre wins over mediocre SEC opponents.  I won’t shed any tears.

Oregon and Iowa still above Ohio St.  I am a Buckeyes fan, but a pitiful loss to Purdue can’t be overlooked with one good win.  Iowa and Oregon have a better body of work.

USC at 15.  Keep living in Pete Carroll mystique if you want to, but a single digit win over Arizona State isn’t the way to prove you belong.

What I am not so confident about

Pitt and Georgia Tech in the Top 10.  I don’t necessarily have a big complaint about it, but these are two teams who may prove themselves overrated in the coming weeks.

What I am looking forward to

TCU vs. Utah- game of the week.  A big TCU win should all but cement them in the BCS.  An ugly game calls into question the whole Mountain West.  A strong Utah win vaults Boise St to the BCS and reaffirms Utah as a major program to be reckoned with.

Iowa vs. Ohio State- got to love this as a Big Ten fan.  But the conference has more to lose than to gain here.  If Stanzi looks lame or neither offense can score, the national exposure may make people wonder if anyone in the Big Ten can play.

West Virginia vs. Cincinnati- watch out UC.  WVU is inconsistent but has solid weapons.  50/50 shot that this is where UC’s undefeated streak comes to an end.

1		Texas
2		Alabama
3		tcu
4		Cinn
5		Florida
6		boise
7		Pitt
8		G Tech
9		Oregon
10		Iowa
11		Ohio St
12		utah
13		Miami
14		Penn St
15		USC
16		Okla st
17		byu
18		V Tech
19		houston
20		LSU
21		Rutgers
22		Arizona
23		S Florida
24		Stanford
25		c mich

Week 9 Rankings

I would have thought that Oregon’s victory over USC would be the big mover this week, but it was actually Texas’s victory over Oklahoma St.  Texas has needed a quality win all year- and they finally got it.  You will also notice that Alabama slipped several notches while not playing.  Blame their past opponents.  Their previous victories over Kentucky, South Carolina, and Mississippi all look more lackluster after this week’s games.

As a subplot- TCU and Boise St are virtually deadlocked, and are squarely behind more established programs.  Boise is hurt by the fact that while Oregon gained percentage points, it did not gain a higher spot in the rankings.  Boise St desperately needs Oregon to win out to continue to contribute to its own ranking.  Meanwhile, TCU still has a date with Utah to pump up its ranking.  Stay tuned.

1		Texas
2		Cinn
3		Florida
4		Alabama
5		tcu
6		boise
7		Iowa
8		Oregon
9		G Tech
10		Penn St
11		Pitt
12		LSU
13		Miami
14		Ohio St
15		USC
16		utah
17		Okla st
18		byu
19		V Tech
20		houston
21		Cal
22		Rutgers
23		S Florida
24		c mich
25		W virginia

Week 8

Well, the big game this week is USC vs. Oregon.  You will notice in the rankings that Oregon is ranked ahead of USC.  Take a real close look at the comparison- based on on-field results- and I think you will agree.  Oregon’s only loss is to Boise St on the road, and they have trounced Cal and others in the Pac-10 even without their best running back.  USC has an awful loss to Washington, some mediocre wins in the Pac-10 and a key win over Ohio St. (who just lost at Purdue).  Who wins will have big implications for the whole ranking.

You will also notice that Boise and TCU are rated over Florida and Texas.  Well, look at the quality wins.  That speaks the story.  But, also remember that unlike most human poll voters that when a team wins it almost never moves down- even if someone else has a more impressive win.  Not so with this ranking- if Florida and Texas continue to win, they will continue to rise.

1		Alabama
2		Cinn
3		boise
4		tcu
5		Texas
6		Florida
7		Iowa
8		Oregon
9		G Tech
10		USC
11		Penn St
12		Pitt
13		Okla st
14		V Tech
15		LSU
16		W virginia
17		c mich
18		Ohio St
19		utah
20		Miami
21		byu
22		houston
23		Kansas
24		Cal
25		Rutgers

Ranking – Week 6

Alabama separates itself with a domination of Ole Miss this last week- lengthening its margin over Boise State.  Florida is in a virtual dead-heat with Boise St.  This may seem odd, but notice that Florida did jump up 3 spots this week and in my ranking LSU was only ranked 12th.  Look out for movement next week as a result of the OU/Texas game.  OU is ranked 30th right now- so a win by Texas won’t give them a huge bump.  However, an OU win would send Texas tumbling and OU back near 18th.

1		Alabama
2		boise
3		Florida
4		V Tech
5		Texas
6		Cinn
7		Iowa
8		tcu
9		Kansas
10		S Florida
11		Oregon
12		Ohio St
13		USC
14		byu
15		Miami
16		Nebraska
17		Pitt
18		Auburn
19		Penn St
20		G Tech
21		s carolina
22		tulsa
23		LSU
24		Rutgers
25		c mich

Rankings Week 5

Sorry for the week off- but I was on vacation.  Here, I really think things are coming together- as I told you, the more data, the better the rankings.  Here are the rankings, plus a few comments:

Alabama stands strong right now- we’ll see if they are for real as they get deeper into the SEC season. 

Boise belongs- they knocked off an Oregon team that just handed it to Cal and a Fresno State team that stayed pretty close to Cincinnati.  Remember this ranking doesn’t work like a poll.  Boise may actually drop as their schedule turns to cupcakes.

Oklahoma and Miami have taken big falls with their high profile losses.  After this weekend, one will be right back in the thick of it- the other won’t have a chance to see the Top 25 until late in the season.

1		Alabama
2		boise
3		Iowa
4		Florida
5		Texas
6		Kansas
7		Cinn
8		Auburn
9		tcu
10		Mich
11		S Florida
12		V Tech
13		LSU
14		UCLA
15		Missouri
16		Texas AM
17		Oregon
18		Wisconsin
19		byu
20		georgia
21		Oklahoma
22		Stanford
23		USC
24		Okla st
25		G Tech

Ranking Explanation – Step 1: Wins

In an effort to shed additional light on how these rankings are calculated, I want to provide the first in a three part series of explanations of the calculations.  So we start where we should- wins.

In my opinion, the point of football is to win the game, so while there is certainly room for style points and moral victories, half of the available points come from whether or not you win the game.

The basics are pretty simple, you earn points based on the number of wins divided by the number of games played.  This is necessary because of bye weeks and 13 game seasons- to put people on a generally equal playing field. 

Overtime wins and losses count as just that- wins and losses, but they do affect points earned through margin of victory- as you will see in a later post.

The wrinkle for this year is separating home vs. away vs. neutral wins.  I felt it was necessary to recognize that a win on the road means more than one at home.  Home wins receive 97% of win points and Away wins receive 103% of win points.  That may not sound like much of a difference but it can move someone +/- 3 or 4 spots in the rankings.

Wins is the greatest contributor to early season volatility but it helps the system get everything right by the end of the year.  Most Top 25 programs will end the year with 3 or 4 losses at the most.  So wins really establish the men from the boys, and then margin of victory and schedule strength determine the best men from the rest.

This is why Oklahoma and Ohio State dropped out of the Top 25.  Give it a week or two until they end up 3-1 and most other teams lose and you will see them back in the mix.  Or, if they start the season 2-2, maybe they don’t deserve the Top 25.